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Message From

Director General

At the same time, given the strength of the substantial weight in CPI basket and suggests
economy and with growth aspirations of the measures to contain price rise in this segment.
people, this is an opportune time for India to
design a blueprint for the next phase of reforms The article on ‘Fiscal Excellence: Centre's CII Fiscal
Despite increased vulnerability which would not only address the evolving global Performance Index Hits 20-Year Peak in FY25’,
to external challenges, India's milieu but also aid India’s Viksit Bharat journey. which is the third in the series, discusses the Fiscal
economy remains resilient and is In this context, the current issue of CII Artha seeks Performance Index developed by CII. This
underscores the significance of the multiple
projected by the IMF to remain to provide a sharp, cutting-edge analysis of the key indicator approach to measure the fiscal discipline
the fastest-growing major domestic and global macroeconomic issues which of the Centre and the States while the fourth
article is titled ‘FY25 Capex Trends: Government
play a critical role in economic decision making of
economy over the next two the country. Investments Rise Post-Elections’, which apart from
years as well, driven by strong making a succinct analysis of the ongoing trends,
domestic demand. One of the highlights of the journal is the Focus makes a strong pitch for launching a cohesive and
integrated trade, investment and industrial policy
Story. Here the spotlight is on the topical subject to boost private investment in the economy.
of ‘Next Generation Reforms Required for
Chandrajit Banerjee Leapfrogging India’s Growth’ by Dr. V. Anantha
Director General, CII Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) to the Apart from this, the journal has sections on ‘Global
Government of India. In the article, the CEA
Scenario’ and ‘State of States’. The section on
mentions about unleashing the latent Global Scenario surmises about the shifts in global
entrepreneurial energy by pressing the pedal on trade dynamics as the United States and other
bold next gen reforms to reduce the cost, time, regions are implementing policies that are
and uncertainty of doing business in India. Another influencing global production and trade while the
article on next gen reforms calls for consensus
State of States section alludes to the scope for
T he current global economic situation could be policies, such as a new wave of tariffs, could lead to building among various stakeholders, viz all levels further involvement of states in capex to
described as a period of significant difficulty,
increased trade tensions, reduced investment,
characterized by a complex interplay of factors diminished market efficiency, distorted trade flows, of government, private sector, academia, civil facilitate growth.
society and ordinary citizens, to take the economy
such as increased geopolitical tensions, escalating and disruptions to supply chains. Consequently, on a higher pedestal of growth.
trade disputes including the rise of US tariffs, growth could suffer in both the near and medium I hope that the journal would generate interest
protectionist policies, disruptions in supply chains, term. All this is creating considerable anxiety about among members and look forward to your
shifting global trade patterns, and volatility in how the economic outcomes would pan out The section on Domestic Trends consists of an feedback on the same
commodity and financial markets, all of which during this year. assortment of four topical articles. The first is on
contribute to uncertainty and potential slowdown ‘Harnessing India's Demographic Dividend for
in the global economy. The unpredictable nature of No doubt, the fast-evolving global landscape has Equitable Economic Growth’ which espouses the
US policy changes further exacerbates this increased the vulnerability of India's economy to pressing need for creating gainful employment
situation, making it difficult to predict the full external challenges, especially since most of the opportunities and ensuring quality employment for
extent of the economic disruption worldwide. the burgeoning workforce through policies such as
headwinds are not under India’s control. the National Employment Policy, implementing the
Nevertheless, India’s growth trajectory remains four labour codes, policy support for labour
Amidst the geopolitical vulnerabilities and trade strong nurtured by the intrinsic strength of intensive sectors etc. The second article in the
tensions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in domestic demand drivers, and the inherent section is on ‘The TOP Trouble: Understanding the
its World Economic Outlook dated April 2025, has resilience of the Indian economy to navigate Spillover Effects of Food Inflation’ which avers that
predicted that the global economy will grow by 2.8 external challenges. As indicated by the IMF, India the TOP commodities exert a larger influence on Chandrajit Banerjee
per cent this year, down from its previous forecast would remain the fastest growing major economy overall inflation due to their high volatility and Director General, CII
of 3.3 per cent, and by 3.0 per cent in 2026. In fact, over the next two years and continue to be a key
IMF has warned that intensified protectionist engine driving global growth.

04 QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 05
APRIL 2025
APRIL 2025