Page 14 - CII ARTHA

ARTHA

Taking Stock of

India’s Growth Momentum

How Did the First Half In the second quarter (July-September FY26),
high-frequency indicators continue to point to a broadly
FY26 Unfold? positive momentum. Core sector output has got a fillip
from a rise in steel and cement output as monsoons
s the first half of the fiscal year concludes, it is an have abated, while manufacturing & services PMIs have
opportune time to take stock of the Indian economy- scaled new heights due to front-loading of export orders
A the hits and misses! to the US.

The Indian economy has stood out as an outlier amid the
spectre of slowdown being witnessed across the key The Indian economy has stood out as an
global economies in the wake of brewing trade related outlier amid the spectre of slowdown
uncertainties and geopolitical disruptions. Multiple being witnessed across the key global
factors underpin India’s growth resilience- strong
domestic demand drivers, a benign inflation trajectory, economies
normal monsoons buttressing rural demand, a lower
interest rate regime and continued strong reform
momentum. On the back of these strengths, real GDP On the financial side, non-food bank credit is slowly but
growth came in at 7.8 per cent in the first quarter of the steadily inching towards double-digit growth after
current fiscal, which is the highest in the last five languishing in single digit since the past several months.
quarters. The healthy growth print was supported by a The recent GST rate rationalisation has also boosted
broad-based improvement seen across both demand and consumer sentiment, reflected in higher automobile and
supply-side indicators. From the demand side, the FMCG sales.
domestic demand drivers of consumption and investment
have held up well, while on the supply side, the three On the external front, however, tariffs and trade remain key
sectors that have done exceptionally well in the quarter imponderables. As a result, the performance of goods
are manufacturing, construction and services. exports has remained tepid so far –growing by only 2.5 per
cent in April-August FY26, while non-petroleum exports did

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