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ARTHA

Growth in Merchandise Exports Value 2025 (y-o-y%)

21.5

10.9
8.3 9.6 7.1 7.8
6.0 6.7 5.0 5.6 6.1 6.5
3.3 4.0 4.6 3.8 3.8
1.7 1.4

-8.4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
United States European Union United Kingdom Japan China

Change in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) 2025 (y-o-y%)

6.2 6.3
5.3
4.8
3.8
2.8
2.2 2.0
0.4 0.0

-0.2 -0.6 -0.8 -0.3
-1.4
-2.0 -1.8 -1.8
-3.4 -3.6

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
United States (Dollar) European Union United Kingdom Japan (Yen) China (Yuan)
(Euro) (Pound)

Note: NEER data is Nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), Index (2010=100) Weighted index, Positive change in NEER
is appreciation, and negative change in NEER is depreciation
Source: WTO Stats Database, Total Merchandise Exports Value
IMF Effective Exchange Rate Data

Export growth in the EU showed slight volatility through The sharp rise in exports in Q4 (by 9.6 per cent)
2025, rising from 3.3 per cent in Q1 to 6.7 per cent in Q2, suggests that global demand and sectoral strength,
before moderating to 4 per cent in Q3 and rebounding to particularly in high-value manufacturing, outweighed the
9.6 per cent in Q4. Over the same period, the euro lower competitiveness due to currency appreciation.
appreciated steadily (as observed from NEER However, sustained appreciation may decrease export
movements), steadily increasing from low values in the competitiveness in 2026, at a time when industrial
first quarter to around 6 per cent in the fourth quarter of growth remains fragile.
2025, reflecting strong capital flows and improved
financial conditions. Despite the strengthening euro, Currencies absorbed shocks
export growth remained resilient, supported by in 2025, adjusting to policy
recovering external demand (particularly in industrial divergence and shifting
goods) and strong intra-European trade. capital flows

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