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ARTHA

Under the reference scenario, India's green steel exports will Under the clean scenario, India’s green
remain virtually absent through 2030, reflecting the lack of steel exports are projected to reach
commercial-scale production. By 2040, modest progress is
expected to yield exports of US$0.3 billion, growing to US$1.8 US$26.2 billion by 2047, positioning
billion by 2047. This trajectory implies that India captures the country as a major global supplier
some share of the emerging market but fails to capitalise
fully on its structural advantages.
Under the reference scenario, India’s RCA in green steel is
The clean scenario demonstrates India's latent export projected to remain at zero in 2030, reflecting the absence of
potential. Green steel exports could reach US$1.2 billion by commercially viable green steel production. By 2040, the
2030 with active deployment of H2-DRI technology and RCA is expected to rise to 0.83, showing maturing domestic
enabling government policies. By 2040, exports are projected capabilities as green steel approaches commercial viability,
to jump to US$10.9 billion as green steel achieves commercial though still below global competitive parity. By 2047, India’s
viability and green hydrogen costs decline substantially. By RCA is projected to exceed unity at 1.16, indicating that
2047, India's green steel exports are projected to reach structural advantages will have translated into realized
US$26.2 billion, positioning the country as a major global export competitiveness.
supplier leveraging its dominant DRI position and cost
competitiveness.

Projected RCA of India in Green Steel
India’s Green Steel Export Projections Reference Scenario Clean Scenario
2030 0.00 0.65
Reference Scenerio
26.2 2040 0.83 1.06
Clean Scenerio
25
2047 1.16 1.18
20 Source: CII Research
Exports (USD Billion) 15 The clean scenario accelerates this transition. India is projected

10
to achieve an RCA of 0.65 by 2030, signalling early green steel
5
1.8 adoption, though exports will remain below the global average
due to limited production scale and transitional cost
0 disadvantages. By 2040, the RCA is expected to cross the
critical threshold at 1.06, showing that accelerated adoption
2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 and policy support will allow India to outperform global
averages. By 2047, the RCA is projected to strengthen to 1.18,
Source: CII Research positioning India among the global leaders in green steel trade.

Conclusion
The Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index offers a
more nuanced assessment by comparing India's export India's green steel future is not predetermined by existing
performance in green steel to global trade patterns, revealing structural advantages alone but will be shaped decisively by
whether structural advantages translate into market policy choices over the next decade. Priority must be given to
competitiveness. An RCA > 1 indicates a revealed comparative
advantage (i.e., a country is more specialized in that product scaling low-cost hydrogen infrastructure, bridging the gap from
than the global average), whereas an RCA < 1 suggests a pilots to commercial production through incentives and
comparative disadvantage. risk-sharing mechanisms, and ensuring market access through
international certifications and trade agreements. A
India's steel sector currently demonstrates strong coordinated industrial strategy that combines public
competitiveness with an RCA value of 1.09 in 2024 for investment, private participation, and international
conventional steel exports, indicating established comparative collaboration will be critical to translate structural advantages
advantage relative to global averages. This benchmark into export competitiveness.
provides context for assessing India's potential green
steel trajectory.

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